The Arctic in a Changing Climate and its Global Impacts (The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP))

The session focus on the changing climate in the Arctic and their regional and global impacts. The Arctic Climate Change Update 2024 report of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) of the Arctic Council provides an update on some of the rapid and unprecedented changes occurring in the Arctic climate system. The report builds on previous assessments, incorporating four additional years of data since the previous AMAP climate update that reveal new record-setting trends in air and permafrost temperatures, wildfires, and sea ice minima. These latest observations highlight the increasing severity of Arctic climate change, with significant implications for the global climate system. The report also explores future projections for the region, emphasizing the urgent need for mitigation measures.

A central theme of the update is the emergence of "extreme extreme" events—climatic occurrences that surpass any previously recorded extremes. Examples from summer 2023, including record land temperatures, early snow melt, extreme sea temperatures, and wildfires, underscore the unpredictability of these events. The report suggests that these new patterns are a result of interacting processes within the Arctic's physical and biological systems, placing the region in an unprecedented state.

The increasing intensity and frequency of wildfires across the Arctic, driven by warmer and drier conditions, are another major concern. The expansion of vegetation due to permafrost thaw is contributing to this trend, and the report underscores the importance of integrating Indigenous knowledge to improve understanding of wildfire ignition sources.

Updates on the cryosphere, including permafrost, sea ice, and snow, further illustrate the ongoing transformation of the Arctic. The report also examines the impacts of climate change on the Arctic freshwater system and ocean acidification, highlighting the accelerated pace of change. Projections show that Arctic Ocean acidification is likely to intensify, but strong mitigation efforts could help slow the pace of these changes and limit ecosystem damage.

Finally, the update addresses the evolving understanding of Arctic and mid-latitude weather linkages, with implications for weather patterns that affect millions of people globally.

Speakers:

• Dr. Rolf Rødven, Executive Secretary of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)
• Dr. Maria Kvalevåg, Deputy Secretary at AMAP
• Dr. Heïdi Sevestre, Deputy Secretary at AMAP